法农：美联储9月加息可能性降低这一看法不成熟

汇通财经APP讯——

8月20日，美联储7月纪要显示仍旧取决于数据决定9月是否加息(通胀仍旧很低)，美元扩大跌幅，也打消了投资者对于获取即将加息的明确暗示的念头。

随着通胀下滑及7月以来对于全球经济增长的担忧进一步加剧，市场已倾向于认为9月加息可能性小于50%。



法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)认为，这种看法是不成熟的，该机构强调美联储持续认为通货膨胀疲软很大程度上是暂时性的。7月纪要同时确认未来几周进一步经济数据(例如，就业市场)的改善应足以启动紧缩周期。

诚然，法农经济学家相信美联储对更多数据以淡化加息预期的方式做出回应，而不是推迟加息。

值得一提的是，7月纪要解释了仅“一些”联邦公开市场委员会委员表达了对于近期美元贬值的担忧。

纪要很难使法农改变中期美元将走强的观点。然而，近期多头持仓可能使美元的表现承压。

USD Post Fed - Credit Agricole

USD lost ground broadly after the July minutes highlighted that the Fed is still in
data dependent mode (watching the still weak US inflation), dashing hopes for more
explicit hints about imminent rate hike. With inflation expectation falling and
global growth fears intensifying further since July, rates markets have moved to
price in a less than 50% chance of a Fed lift-off in September.

We think this is premature and would stress that the Fed continues to see the
inflation weakness as largely transitory. The July minutes also confirmed that
further economic (eg labour market) data improvement in coming weeks should be
sufficient for an early start of the tightening cycle.

Indeed, the CA economists believe that the Fed will respond to more data noise by
flattening its rate hike profile rather than delaying lift-off.

Last but not least, the July minutes revealed that only 'some' FOMC members
expressed concerns about the recent USD appreciation.

The minutes did little to change our bullish view on USD over medium term. In the
near term, however, positioning overhang could weigh on USD performance.