成交量萎缩，港股涨势恐难持续

汇通财经APP讯——

香港丰盛融资有限公司(Ample Capital Ltd.)董事黄国英(Alex Wong)认为港股的反弹趋势将不会持续。

10月恒生指数大涨8.6%，但成交量却创下2月以来新低。中国投资者的卖盘超过了买盘。小盘股表现最差。

在中国经济放缓忧虑与美联储加息预期的内忧外患之下，港股自4月的历史高点回落了21%。经济增速下滑导致需求不振，A股受挫，美联储加息将提升房贷成本打压香港房地产市场，超过500家在香港上市的大陆企业都不同程度的受到影响。

黄国英称，“投资者十分谨慎，他们不相信涨势将会持续，许多人认为近期的上涨只是熊市中的反弹，过去5月市场的糟糕表现打压了投资者的信心。目前的情况很符合空头回补的特征——上涨快速且短暂，没有可持续性。”



前期跌幅最大的股票10月领涨，例如中国能源股等。

摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase & Co.)首席亚洲和新兴市场策略师Adrian Mowat表示，“我们认为目前为止的反弹都是空头回补，亚洲有不少潜在的需求存在，但现在还未能转化成大量订单，问题在于新兴市场能否再次吸引全世界的投资者。”

美国购买新兴市场股票和债券的ETF第三季度资金流出124亿美元。但10月的前3周，有25.8亿美元资金流入发展中国家，创5月以来最大涨幅。

恒生小型股指数10月仅上涨6.1%，远低于4月28%的涨幅，同时也低于10月恒生指数8.6%的涨幅，A股情况则相反，上证指数上涨11%，不及创业板的19%。

瑞东集团(Reorient Group)亚洲股票销售主管David Welch称，中国央行多次降准降息，市场情绪稳定，年底前A股将继续上涨。他认为涨势得益于空头回补以及部分投资者减轻了先前过重的仓位，并相信未来数月还将持续上扬，而A股也将带动港股走强。

4月28日恒生指数收盘价创2007年以来新高，3月底中国证监会宣布内地公募基金可直接投资港股。

对美联储加息的预期同样影响了10月港股的走势。

上月公布的经济数据显示美国经济复苏步伐放缓。上周末，国家统计局公布的官方PMI显示制造业连续第3月萎缩。中国央行年内已经降息6次。

蒙特利尔银行全球资产管理公司(BMO Global Asset Management)旗下LGM Investments大中华股票部门负责人Stephen Ma预测美联储12月加息概率为50%。BMO管理资金超2540亿美元。该负责人表示，看好短期趋势，但中长期依然面临下行风险。

Hong Kong's Stock Rally Seen Too Good to Last as Volume Fades

Wherever Alex Wong looks, he sees signs that Hong Kong’s stock rebound isn’t going to last.
The Hang Seng Index’s 8.6 percent surge in October came on the lowest trading volume since February. Chinese investors sold more shares in the city than they bought, and small-caps were the worst-performing part of the market.
The Hong Kong equity gauge is still down 21 percent from its April peak after getting squeezed between concern about China and the outlook for U.S. interest-rate increases. The economic slowdown and stock rout across the mainland border curbed demand for more than 500 Chinese companies listed in the city, while the Fed’s plan to increase borrowing costs is weighing on property developers.
“People are extremely cautious," said Wong, a Hong Kong-based asset-management director at Ample Capital Ltd. “They don’t believe in the rise because many people see this as a bear market rally, and their experience from the last five months has been too bad. A short-covering rally usually has these kinds of characteristics -- the rise is very sharp and brief, and not sustainable."
Companies that had slumped the most led the October rebound, from Macau casino operators to Chinese energy producers. Short-selling as a percentage of turnover slipped, after reaching its highest this year in late September. Short interest as a proportion of shares outstanding averages 0.9 percent on the Hang Seng Index, according to the most recent data available from Markit Group Ltd., with Want Want China Holdings Ltd. and Li & Fung Ltd. among ones with the highest ratio.

Short Covering
“What we’ve seen is short covering so far," said Adrian Mowat, the chief Asian and emerging market equity strategist at JP Morgan Chase & Co. “There’s a lot of interest in Asia but at the moment it’s not really translating into accounts executing and putting the big buy orders on. The question is whether you can persuade the global accounts to start to return to emerging markets."
U.S. exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market stocks and bonds are still recovering from outflows of $12.4 billion in the third quarter. A total of $2.58 billion flowed into the developing-nation ETFs in the first three weeks of October, the longest winning stretch since May.
A measure of small-cap shares on the Hang Seng Composite Index climbed just 6.1 percent in October, compared with an 8.6 percent gain for the biggest companies and a 28 percent surge in April. In mainland markets, the pattern was reversed, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 11 percent and the ChiNext index soaring 19 percent. By the end of October, Chinese investors had an extra 1.4 billion yuan ($221 million) of quota left to buy Hong Kong securities via the city’s Shanghai exchange link. The balance rises when investors sell shares.
Multi-Month Rally
China’s multiple cuts to interest rates and bank reserve requirements have helped stabilize growth and sentiment, which should drive equities higher toward the year-end, according to ReOrient Group.
“I’m sure a lot of the gains are because of short covering and some investors reducing underweight positions," said David Welch, head of equity sales trading at ReOrient Group in Hong Kong. “But I think it’s the start of a multi-month rally so I’m convinced in that regard. China goes up, it takes Hong Kong along for the ride."
The Hang Seng Index on April 28 closed at its highest level since 2007, buoyed by regulators’ move at the end of March to expand access to the city’s shares for Chinese funds.
Fed Outlook
Expectations the Fed would keep interest rates near zero for longer also helped fuel gains in October, according to LGM Investments Ltd. Traders now predict a 50 percent change the U.S. will raise borrowing costs in December. Data last month showed growth in U.S. services cooled and the economy expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter. In China, October factory gauges released over the weekend showed manufacturing contracted for a third month. Policy makers cut interest rates last month for the sixth time in a year.
“Short term this might be good but it doesn’t solve the medium-term problem," said Stephen Ma, senior portfolio manager at LGM, whose parent oversees more than $254 billion. “Does it mean that global investors welcome a weaker global PMI growth and hence we have market relief rally? It doesn’t make too much sense to me."